Global EconomyOutlook > Outlook worldwide industrial production

Worldwide industrial production in first three-quarters of 2016

Stagnating total tendency of worldwide industrial production in 2016

The worldwide industrial production is highlighted by three reports. This report investigated the current situation of the worldwide industrial production and its outlook. Two further reports deal with the structural changes in the course of the industrial production and the crisis overcoming.

Update January 20th, 2017 – The background for the worldwide industrial production in the first three-quarters of 2016 provide the following facts and trends:

  • The worldwide industrial production is analyzed for groups of countries that absorb 80% of the machine export from Germany. Those are the three groups industrialized countries (European Union, the USA, and Japan), BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and MIST countries (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey).

  • Our reports for all three country groups identify those trends based on periods ranging from fifteen to thirty-five years that are determining today. So five structural changes coin the current situation of the worldwide industrial production today.

  • These five structural changes are in keywords: 1. shorter sequence of economic crises since 2000, 2. deeper crises, 3. longer crisis overcoming, 4. galloping national indebtedness and 5. Instead of a general upward business trend as it is common after a crisis, nonuniform crisis overcoming with coexisting of growth, stagnation and setback of industrial production producing a stagnant total tendency.

Stagnation of industrial production in the industrialized countries is the major trend in 2016

Symbol picture industrialized countries.

The group of industrialized countries takes 60% of the German machine exports.


In the first three-quarters of 2016 its industrial production indicates a flattening and partly reversing of the trends by the end of 2015.

  • Industrial production in the USA stagnated in 2015, dropping under this level in 2016.

  • Also Germany’s industrial production went flat in 2015, grew by two index points in the first quarter of 2016, however, since then has been stagnating on this higher level.

  • Industrial production in the European Union continued its growth from 2014 and 2015 into first quarter of 2016, however, has been stagnating like Germany since then on this slightly higher level significantly down to its pre-crisis level.

  • In Japan industrial production plunched in first quarter of 2016 to a new trough since 2010. Since then its slightly growing, remaining significantly below its pre-crisis level.

This process of industrial production acknowledges completely the structurally changed course of the crisis overcoming.

Industrial production in the industrialized countries from 2008 to 2016.

BRIC countries showing likewise stagnating total tendency in 2016

Symbol picture BRIC countries

The BRIC countries, which absorb 15% of the machine exports from Germany, offer likewise the picture of a stagnating total tendency.

 

  • China's industrial production is carrying forward its growth trend from previous year also in the first three-quarters of 2016, however, through an interplay of decreasing and increasing growth rates.

  • The growth of India’s industrial production in 2015 has been ending up in stagnation in 2016.

  • Russia’s industrial production plunched in 2015 and stagnated on this lower level in 2016.

  • Brazil's industrial production has been showing an open crisis since 2014. The fall of industrial production came to an end in the second and third quarter of 2016.
Industrial production in the BRIC countries from 2008 to 2016.

So the BRIC countries confirm and deepen the total stagnating tendency of the worldwide industrial production for 2016.

MIST countries fitting into worldwide stagnating total tendency

Symbol picture MIST countries.

MIST countries with 6% share at the machine export showing a similar complete picture.

  • In Turkey political persecution and suppression let industrial production plunche in third quarter of 2016.

  • Mexico's industrial production is keeping on to stagnate as it does basically industrial production of South Korea.

  • Solely Indoneia's industrial production is growing in 2016 and this to a dynamic extent.
Industrial production in Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea und Turkey (MIST) from 2008 to 2016.

So also the MIST countries are inclosed in the stagnating total tendency of the worldwide industrial production.

Outlook for 2016 at the beginning of 2016 confirmed

At the beginning of 2016, the Quest Trend Magazine predicted:

  • "So it is probable that the mix of growth, stagnation and setback with stagnant total tendency will persist 2016."


This outlook has been confirmed.

Bookmark and Share