Production and sales in German machinery industry 2008 - March 15
Production of German machinery industry moving sideways even in first quarter
Up to March 2015 data for production and sales of the German machinery industry are represented from the Federal Statistical Office. We put these data into the context since the outbreak of the world economic crisis 2008/2009. That makes it easier to answer the question, in which situation the machinery industry is and which development for the future will be probable.
After its peak above pre-crisis level production moving sideways in first quarter
Update May 18th, 2015 - Production of the German machinery industry has exceeded its pre-crisis level with 135.6 index points in December 2014 for the first time. This happend in the sixth year since the outbreak of the world economic crisis 2008/2009.
In January 2015 production again slipped, increasing slightly in February and strongly in March to 124.0 index points. So production is moving above the one-year average of 114.7 indexpoints (dashed line).
Sales too swinging into the sideways movement after peak in December 2014
Sales have been showing the same type of the development as production. However, two differences are showing up.
The sideways movement started 2012 and not as with production in 2011.
And sales exceeded their pre-crisis level of 2008 (137.0) six times from 2010 to 2014. The crucial point according to our opinion is however that the pre-crisis level was not exceeded in a stable manner.
Is an end of the sideways moving probable?
Sideways moving is the probable prospect due to a structural change in the export countries
The analysis of the worldwide crisis overcoming from 2008 to 2014 shows that the usual general upward business trend after a crisis failed. In its place the worldwide industrial production is showing a coexistence, a close relation of growth, stagnation and setbacks to each other. We have characterized this new phenomenon as a structural change in the process of crisis overcoming.
This structural change is coining the course of the industrial production in the industrialized countries and the BRIC countries. Industrial production in the MIST countries is in a general upward business trend.
The structural change with its close relation of growth, stagnation and setbacks to each other in the world economy is also limiting the opportunities on the world market for the German machinery industry keeping it caught in a sideways range.
Sideways movement furthe probable because export shares lagging behind industrial production in export countries
Comparing export shares of the German machinery industry with the course of industrial production in those export countries that absorb 80% of the machine exports from Germany, it becomes apparent that the export shares are lagging behind industrial production in the export countries apart from the USA.
The Quest Trend Magazine has raised the question about a changing demand structure for machines as a possible reason. But the fact alone that export shares do not climb together with increasing industrial production has an limiting impact on the development of production and sales of the German machinery industry.