Production and sales in German machinery industry 2008 - July 15
Production and sales in the German machinery industry remain stuck in their sideways range in July even after their annual top
Up to July 2015 data for production and sales of the German machinery industry are represented from the Federal Statistical Office. We put these data into the context since the outbreak of the world economic crisis 2008/2009. That makes it easier to answer the question, in which situation the machinery industry is and which development for the future will be probable.
Update September 9th, 2015 - Production of the German machinery industry exceeded its pre-crisis level with 135.6 index points in December 2014 for the first time. This happend in the sixth year since the outbreak of the world economic crisis 2008/2009.
After the drop in January 2015, production since then has been going up and down as it is typical for sideways movements.
In June production made its annual high with 123.8 index points so far, being clearly above the moving one-year average of 114.4 index points in June (dashed line).
In July a setback to 117.9 index points followed the top.
The entire picture since 2011 is showing how production is moving in a sideways range (upper and lower line) also in 2015 so far.
Sales showing rising tendency since 2013
Apart from being in a sideways range just as production, sales have been showing a rising tendency since 2013 in contrast to stagnating production. The ascending line of the moving one-year average (dashed line) makes it clear.
In July the sales index dropped from its annual high a month ago (141.3) to 136.8 index points.
Is an end of the sideways moving probable? Regarding this question our assessment from this June remains unchanged.
Sideways moving is the probable outlook for 2015 due to structural changes in export markets
The analysis of the worldwide crisis overcoming from 2008 to 2014 shows that the usual general upward business trend after a crisis failed. In its place the worldwide industrial production is showing a coexistence, a close relation of growth, stagnation and setbacks to each other. We have characterized this new phenomenon as a structural change in the process of crisis overcoming.
This structural change is coining the course of the industrial production in the industrialized countries and the BRIC countries. Industrial production in the MIST countries is in a general upward business trend.
The structural change with its close relation of growth, stagnation and setbacks to each other in the world economy is also limiting the opportunities on the world market for the German machinery industry keeping it caught in a sideways range.
Comparing export shares of the German machinery industry with the course of industrial production in those export countries that absorb 80% of the machine exports from Germany, it becomes apparent that the export shares are lagging behind industrial production in the export countries apart from the USA.
The Quest Trend Magazine has raised the question about a changing demand structure for machines as a possible reason. But the fact alone that export shares do not climb together with increasing industrial production has an limiting impact on the development of production and sales of the German machinery industry.