Outlook for production and sales in the German machinery industry
For the first time production of German machinery industry above pre-crisis level in December 2014
Up to January 2015 data for production and sales of the German machinery industry are represented from the Federal Statistical Office. We put these data into the context since the outbreak of the world economic crisis 2008/2009. That makes it easier to answer the question, in which situation the machinery industry is and which development for the future will be probable.
Production of machinery industry above pre-crisis level but still in sideways movement
Update March 23rd, 2015 - The course of production of the German machinery industry in 2014 is completely available. We will integrate the year 2014 into the context since the beginning of the world economy crisis 2008/2009:
The following diagram shows definitely:
- Production of the German machinery industry has exceeded its pre-crisis level in December 2014 for the first time since the outbreak of the world economic crisis 2008/9.
The course of production is still following a sideways movement since 2011 according to our opinion.
The reasons are the repeated decrease of production in January 2015 to 98.5 index points, the horizontal trend in the yearly average (dashed line) as well as the situation on the important export markets of the German machinery industry.
Sales on the highest level in December 2014 since the economic crisis
Sales have been showing the same type of the development as production. However, two differences are showing up.
The sideways movement started 2012 and not as with production in 2011.
And sales exceeded their pre-crisis level of 2008 (137.0) six times from 2010 to 2014. The crucial point according to our opinion is however that the pre-crisis level was not exceeded in a stable manner.
Is an end of the sideways moving probable?
Sideways moving is the probable prospect
The worldwide industrial production is showing a close relation of growth, stagnation and setbacks to each other appearing in all of the three country regions being important for the world economy, i.e. the industrialized countries, the BRIC and MIST countries.
This mixed situation of growth, stagnation and setbacks in the world economy reflects itself in the development of the export-oriented machinery industry in 2014 hindering so far both a deeper sagging as well as a continuous growth of production and sales compared to the previous year. Hence quite larger fluctuations may arise.
A typical development of the world economy for the stage of crisis overcoming would be a unified growth of the worldwide industrial production. However, the close entwinement of growth, stagnation and setbacks indicates a non-typical development, affected by the three resp. four structural changes, which were already analyzed in the Quest Trend Magazine.
They are also leaving their mark on the stage of the crisis overcoming in the German machinery industry. It is probable that the German machinery industry will furthermore be caught in the sideways range.