Technological change of the control technology from users' point of view in 2010
Technological change has two sides. It is naturally constituted by new or improved technologies on the part of the manufacturers. However, the user decides, in which extent these technologies are actually used. How can the impact of the user on the technological change be recorded related to this year?
The control technologies in the change in 2010
- MP = microprocessor control, C = contactor-based control technology
June 21st, 2010 - We regard, which changes at the control technologies the machine-builders intend this year. We consider the respective number of machines that is connected with these changes.
The diagram shows the positions of the control technologies in the change of the year 2010:
- Nearly all control technologies show up as stable in the change.
- Tendencies for substitution show up with the PLC and the contactor-based control technology.
- In the change attractive control technologies are Panel PC with integrated control system and also the contactor-based control technology.
The three influencing factors of the users
The machine-builders decide, which control technology at the machines is used. This can be different technologies such as PLC, PC, CNC, customised microprocessor solutions, contactor-based control technology, VMEbus computer etc.
Such decisions favour the ones control technologies and disadvantage others. This change affects the control technologies in three-ways.
- Stability - the machine-builders keep the existing control technology in use perhaps combining it with other control technologies (like PLC with CNC) or taking an upgrade (e.g. from S5 to S7) or a downgrade.
- Substitution - the machine-builders substitute the existing control technology (e.g. PLC) by another (e.g. PC).
- New use - the machine-builders use at a machine a control technology for the first time.
The three user-constituted positions in the technological change
Based on the decisions of the machine-builders three positions of the control technologies result in the change:
- stable
- substitution-threatened or
- attractive control technologies, which tighten new users.
With these three positions one has the change of the control technologies from the users’ point of view at a glance.
So it shows up this year at a glance that the control technologies keep stable in the change. Fine-tuning is up-to-date.
"Voter transition analysis" for technologies
Quest TechnoMarketing, the publisher of this magazine, has developed this method for its market analyses of the automation technology.
This analysis is comparable with the voter transition analysis in the context of parliamentary elections. Similar to the voter transition analysis that records the exchanges of the votes among the parties, the analysis of Quest TechnoMarketing makes the changes among the control technologies visible.
While the voter transition analysis starts after the election our analysis however starts „before the election“, referring to the planning and intentions of the following eight to twelve months. Before market shares of technologies and suppliers have changed, the dynamics of these changes are already announced in this analysis.