Germany's industrial production 2008 - 2020 December

Germany's industrial production in crisis, trend dropping by 5.4% p.a. since November 2018

Germany's industrial production is already examined in the Trend Magazine in connection with industrial production in the most important export countries. This report deals with Germany’s industrial since the pre-crisis year 2008 up to the current data of Germany’s Federal Statistical Office.

Update February 9th, 2021 - The diagram shows the original values of the production index over a period of twelve years from 2008 to 2020. The dotted line indicates the trend of the last twelve months. This identifies in an easy and transparent way industrial production's direction.

Two phases in the trend of industrial production become visible - growth and crisis.

Industrial production of Germany from 2008 to 2020.

Growth trend over five years from initial 2013 to October 2018

Industrial production or its trend took three years from the end of 2009 to mid-2012 to emerge from the trough of the global economic crisis of 2008/2009. After a six-month decline, a growth phase, lasting more than five years, began from March 2013 to October 2018. The rate of this growth trend was 1.8% p.a.

Crisis of Germany's industrial production since November 2018

At an early stage in Febriary 2019 the Trend Magazine stated:

  • "It is likely that the growth trend will turn into stagnation in 2019, which could turn into a crisis."  

In October 2018, the growth trend in industrial production reached its highest level of 106.5 index points. Since then, the trend in industrial production has been downwards.

The reason for this is initially based on the global economy, which is characterized by a mixture of growth, stagnation and decline. This mixture of growth, stagnation and decline has replaced a general economic upswing that used to follow a crisis. This situation is unstable and the factors that maintain it are weakening more and more. One of these factors is the galloping public debt, the continuation of which is creating ever greater risks. These include industrial production in China, whose growth rates are slowing down. These include the aggressive US policy under Trump and the emergence of a new, bipolar power structure in the world with the two main poles, the USA and China. All three factors are constraining the global economy.  

The end of the growth trend and the decline in industrial production at the end of 2018 in Germany can also be deduced from their course to date.  

The strongest growth within the five-year growth phase from 2013 to 2018 set in at the beginning of 2016. Production repeatedly reached higher highs and higher lows - typical for a growth phase.

But this changed in 2018, when production was unable to exceed the highs of the previous years (117.9 index points in November 2017), so it no longer grew faster. Its peak value in 2018 was only 113.3 index points in November 2018, which means that production growth flattened out - incipient stagnation leading then to a decline in production.

Since November 2018 the trend of industrial production has been declining at a rate of 5.4% p.a. until December 2020.

It is probable that the decline will increase and become part of a new global economic crisis in the overall economic and political context.

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