Global EconomyOutlook > Current trends of worldwide industrial production

Five structural changes

 

1. shorter sequence of economic crises since 2000

2. deeper crises

3. longer crisis overcoming

4. galloping national indebtedness

5. instead of an upward business trend non-uniform crisis overcoming with coexisting of growth, stagnation and setback of industrial production producing a stagnant total tendency.


Worldwide industrial production in 2018 Q2

Growth, stagnation and setback mark worldwide industrial production in second quarter 2018

The worldwide industrial production is highlighted by four reports. This report quarterly investigated the situation of the worldwide industrial production and its outlook. A report deals with structural changes in the course of the industrial production, a report highlights the time from the outbreak of the world economic crisis to 2017 and finally a report shows the structurally changed process of the crisis overcoming.

September 17th, 2018 – The selected countries absorb 80% of machine exports from Germany. These are the three country groups industrialized countries (European Union, the USA, and Japan), BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and MIST countries (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey). The trend analysis is based on the five structural changes in the course of industrial production sinde 2000. These keywords are listed on the left side.

Growth and stagnation of the industrialized countries' industrial production in second quarter 2018

Symbol picture industrialized countries.

The group of industrialized countries takes 60% of the German machine exports.


Industrial production in Germany and the EU stagnated in second quarter 2018 while it grew in the US and Japan as the blue-colored area indicates in the diagram.

Industrial production in the industrialized countries from 2008 to 2018 Q2.

The US government's aggressive trade policy under Trump could well trigger a new global economic crisis. The background of the Trump policy is a significant loss of speed especially compared to China. Two figures may illustrate this:
 


Protective tariffs, political pressure and blackmail signal weakness of the US and will not strengthen the US economy as hoped. This significantly increases the risk of war. Pentagon consultant Graham Allison tried to explain this in his book "Destined for War" published in 2017. Chinese President Xi Jinpin mentioned this book to American journalists.

Growth and setbacks of the industrial production of the BRIC countries in second quarter 2018

Symbol picture BRIC countries

The BRIC countries too absorbing 15% of machine exports from Germany offer a similar, mixed picture in second quarter 2018.

 

  • India’s industrial production grew significantly in first quarter 2018 but slowed in second quarter.
Industrial production in the BRIC countries from 2008 to 2018 Q2.
  • Russia's industrial production is continuing its growth.

  • Brazil's industrial production dropped below the level of 2017 in second quarter.

Also the MIST countries showing a mix of growth and setbacks in second quarter

Symbol picture MIST countries.

MIST countries with 6% share at the machine export showing a similar mixted overall picture.

 

  • After a dynamic increase Turkey's industrial production dropped in second quarter 2018.

  • Also Indonesia's industrial production turned from growth to decrease in second quarter.

  • South Korea's industrial production that was still dropping in first quarter turned to a clear growth in second quarter.
  • Mexico's industrial production kept on to stagnate in first quarter. For the second quarter no data is available yet.
Industrial production in Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea und Turkey (MIST) from 2008 to 2018 Q2.
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