Global EconomyOutlook > Current trends of worldwide industrial production

Five structural changes

 

1. shorter sequence of economic crises since 2000

2. deeper crises

3. longer crisis overcoming

4. galloping national indebtedness

5. instead of an upward business trend non-uniform crisis overcoming with coexisting of growth, stagnation and setback of industrial production producing a stagnant total tendency.


Worldwide industrial production in 2018 Q1

Worldwide industrial production is developing in first quarter 2018 like 2017

The worldwide industrial production is highlighted by four reports. This report quarterly investigated the situation of the worldwide industrial production and its outlook. A report deals with structural changes in the course of the industrial production, a report highlights the time from the outbreak of the world economic crisis to 2017 and finally a report shows the structurally changed process of the crisis overcoming.

June 22th, 2018 – The selected countries absorb 80% of machine exports from Germany. These are the three country groups industrialized countries (European Union, the USA, and Japan), BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and MIST countries (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey). The trend analysis is based on the five structural changes in the course of industrial production sinde 2000. These keywords are listed on the left side.

Industrial production in the industrialized countries continuing unified growth in 2017 into first quarter 2018

Symbol picture industrialized countries.

The group of industrialized countries takes 60% of the German machine exports.


Its industrial production is continuing the unified growth from the year 2017 into the first quarter 2018 as the blue-colored area indicates in the diagram.

Industrial production in the industrialized countries from 2008 to 2018 Q1.

The US government's aggressive trade policy under Trump could well trigger a new global economic crisis. The background of the Trump policy is a significant loss of speed especially compared to China. Two figures may illustrate this:
 


Protective tariffs, political pressure and blackmail signal weakness of the US and will not strengthen the US economy as hoped. This significantly increases the risk of war. Pentagon consultant Graham Allison tried to explain this in his book "Destined for War" published in 2017. Chinese President Xi Jinpin mentioned this book to American journalists.

Industrial production of the BRIC countries in first quarter 2018 the same as in 2017

Symbol picture BRIC countries

The BRIC countries too absorbing 15% of machine exports from Germany offer the same picture of the year 2017 in first quarter 2018.

 

  • India’s industrial production grew significantly in first quarter 2018.
Industrial production in the BRIC countries from 2008 to 2018 Q1.
  • Russia’s industrial production kept on with slight growth as in 2017.

  • Brazil's industrial production could continue its slight growth from 2017 in first quarter 2018.

Also MIST countries showing similar picture as they did in 2017

Symbol picture MIST countries.

MIST countries with 6% share at the machine export showing a similar overall picture.

 

  • In Turkey industrial production grew dynamically and continuously in first quarter 2018.

  • In Indonesia industrial production increased dynamically likewise.

  • Mexico's industrial production kept on to stagnate as it did basically industrial production of South Korea likewise.
Industrial production in Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea und Turkey (MIST) from 2008 to 2018 Q1.
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