Status of crisis overcoming fourteen years afterwards
Growth rates of industrial production in countries absorbing almost 80% of Germany's machine exports
Update May 17th, 2023 - This report reveals the growth rates resp. change rates of global industrial production. Why industrial production in particular? It is the most important economic indicator for the machinery industry and automation technology.
This report considers countries that accounted for 82% of all machinery exports from Germany in 2022. These are the EU, the USA and Japan (59%), the BRIC countries Brazil, Russia, India and China (14%) as well as the MIST countries Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey (6%).
The annual growth rates of the industrialized countries since the overcoming of the global economic crisis reaching from minus 0.5% to 1.0%
The analysis puts the OECD data to industrial production at 100 for the pre-crisis year 2008, so that the change rates since that time until 2022 are immediately clear and comparable.
The following diagram shows at a glance that industrial production in 2022 in Germany changed by 0% since 2008, in the USA rose by 4.7%, in the EU incresed by 6.6% and decreased by 14.9% in Japan since then.
Let us differentiate further and identify the year in which the countries concerned had overcome their crisis trough. And growth rates will only be determined from this point until end of 2022.
The annual growth rates of industrial production after the crisis are for Germany minus 0.04% p.a. since 2011, for the EU by 1.0% since 2011, for the USA by 0.3% since 2013 and for Japan by minus 0.5% p.a. since 2010.
From a stagnating or only slightly growing trend in the industrial countries to a crisis
These figures do not document an economic upswing that used to be the norm after crises. Rather, the economic and crisis cycle of industrial production in the industrialized countries has changed structurally since 2000, as this magazine has shown.
Instead of a previously usual economic upswing after crises, an uneven, sluggish overcoming of the crisis has taken place, in which growth, stagnation and setbacks coexist and produce a stagnating or by 2018 only slightly growing overall trend.
In 2022, industrial production in the industrialized countries the US, Germany, the EU and Japan went through a crisis, as the chart shows.
The annual growth rates of the BRIC countries document growth and setback in a range from 8.2% to -1.4%
China's industrial production tripled increased since 2008, while that of the US has risen by only almost 5%. This gap is a major cause of the US government's aggressive policy toward China in particular. It is about containing China for reasons of competition and the USA's desire to remain the world power number one.
The annual growth rates of industrial production in India and Russia, at 3.0%p.a. and 2.2%p.a. respectively, are significantly higher as in the USA with 0.3% p.a..
Brazil's industrial production shrinked by 1.4% per year since 2010.
The annual growth rates of the MIST countries range from 0.2% to 6.2% per year
The chart shows that since 2008 industrial production in Turkey grew by 110%, in Indonesia by almost 70%, in South Korea by 46% and in Mexico by 13%.
Turkey leads the annual growth rates of the MIST countries with 6.2% since 2010, followed by Indonesia with 3.8% since 2008, South Korea with 1.9% since 2010 and Mexico with 0.2% p.a. since 2011.
The galloping indebtedness of state, companies and consumers in the US
The galloping national debt has revealed this magazine as the fourth structural change. In the US it has reached 123% of the GDP in 2021.
The level of debt of the private sector, i.e. companies (banks excluded) and households is at 160% of the GDP in 2021 as the FED graph below indicates.
Debts make it possible to buy now and pay later. Of course, the development of industrial production benefits both from credit-financed purchase of its products and from its credit-financed modernisation and expansion.
Today's enormously increased production possibilities with the help of state-of-the-art technology apparently cannot be absorbed without credit-financed demand. If payments of the purchases today cannot be covered by payments tomorrow due to overindebtedness, the credit chain will crack, a money crisis will break out and production tailored to credit-financed levels will choke on its own oversize - in the form of a world economic crisis.