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The export markets of packaging machines 2008 - 2017

How export markets and average values of packaging machines are changing in three stages

This report highlights the three stages in the relation of export markets for packaging machines and their average values, expressed in euro per packkaging machine, since the beginning of the world economic crisis from 2008/2009 to 2017.

The average value of packaging machines dropped clearly during the time of crisis overcoming

Update July 5th, 2018 - In the crisis year 2009 production and value resp. sales1 of packaging machines synchronously plunge into the cellar. However, they do not climb synchronously out of the crisis low.

Indexes of production and sales and the value per packaging machine from 2008 to 2017.

Rather the approach out of the crisis indicates a specific strategy, which may be partly deliberately chosen, partly forced by the emergency situation.


The packaging machines’ number of items rise steeply, their value resp. sales lag behind, in the result the average value per packaging machine clearly drops (light blue filled area).


While the average value before the crisis stood at €77,500 per packaging machine, it drops in 2010 to €69,200 (minus 11%) and one year later still more deeply to €67,100 € (minus 13%).


So the crisis overcoming had been managed by clear reduced average values of packaging machines with rising number of items.

Export markets shifting during the time of crisis overcoming

This strategy is connected with a precipitous shift of the export markets in 2010.


To the EU countries the export share of packaging machines plunges from 35% to 27%, soaring to the BRIC countries from 17% to 25%. Regarding China the export share doubles to 15% within one year.

Export shares of packaging machines to main countries from 2008 to 2017.

The export share to the MIST countries rises relatively as strongly as it falls to the US.


It is a plausible thesis that the increased export numbers to the BRIC and MIST countries could be achieved with packaging machines, whose functional range or performance scope were reduced to certain extent. Price concessions will have played a completing but not the leading role.


This first stage in the relation between changes of the average value of packaging machines and changes in their export markets lasts from 2010 to 2011. This strategy leads through the crisis.

Since 2012 export markets shifting back with rising average values of packaging machines

Then in 2012 a strategic change occurs and opens up the second stage. The average value per packaging machine rises steeply, as the chart clearly indicates. It increases by 33% from €67,000 € to €89,000 in the three years from 2012 to 2014. At the same time the number of items drops during this period while sales rise.


This strategy is again combined with a change of the export markets. This time they backshift to the constellation before the crisis - first tentatively, then intensified.

In 2015 and intensified in 2016 average values of packaging machines even drop to former export markets

To the EU countries the export share has been rising 2015 to its third year, to the BRC countries it has been fallen to its fifth year. And the duplication of the export share to China was dwindled to a growth of just 30%. However, to the MIST countries the export share constantly rises until 2014, however, dropping again in 2015.


This backshift of the export markets has the sector in common with the entire machinery industry.


Is this a future-oriented strategy weighting export markets in the same way as it was before the world economic crisis of 2008/2009?


This question may be justified as three years later the average value of the packaging machines drops again in 2015 - even on the base of back shifted export markets. The number of items rises, sales drop.  


Obviously the stagnating tendencies in the world economy take their toll starting the third stage which combines back shifted export markets with sinking average values being in opposite to pre-crisis' time.


These tendencies are continuing intensified in 2016 as the average value of packaging machines stands with €76,000 only scacerly above the level of 2012.

In 2017, the average values of packaging machines rose again for the first time since 2014, rising by 7% to € 81,100. Sales increase by 4%, production decreases by 3%.

The orientation of the export markets on regions more strongly trimmed on growth has weakened in 2017

Finally we will compare the export shares of packaging machines with those of the machinery industry for the year 2017.


In 2015 the export quotas of packaging machines to growth-stronger regions like BRIC countries with China and the MIST countries were a bit higher than in the machinery industry. Two years later this is only still true for the MIST countries Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey.

The export shares of packaging machines in the EU, the USA, to China, the BRIC countries and the MIST countries 2017 compared to machinery industry.

The export country number one for packaging machines outside the European Union are the USA with 12% (10%) in 2015. China, in 2014 still on first place, takes now 10% of the exports of packaging machines (9%).


The export shares of packaging machines to the weak EU countries in regard to growth is clearly below with 30% that of the machinery industry with 48%.

 


1 The official statistics determines value as production, evaluated to selling prices without value added tax. So the difference to the turnover lies mainly in changes of inventories, i.e. value may be understood as turnover with good approximation.

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