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Production and sales of German machinery industry in November 2019

Growth trend of production and sales of German machinery industry drops to 0.6% resp. 2.2% p.a. in November

Symbol picture machinery industry.

This report combines multi-year trends with monthly status of production and sales in the German mechanical engineering. However, associations and official statistics separate both in favor of a mechanical comparison to previous month or year. Thus long-term effective trends are losing sight of. A separate trend report publishes the trends in production and sales from 2008 to 2018. As sales in euro are published delayed in time by the Federal Statistical Office publishes, so our analysis of these numbers.

Update January 23rd, 2020 – The production of the German machinery industry has been showing a growth trend since March 2017 that counts for a growth of 0.6% per year up to November 2019. In October 2018 the yearly rate of the growth trend stood still at 3.5% p.a. and 2.1% p.a. in May 2019.

The growth trend is defined by Quest Trend Magazine as moving yearly average of the production indexes published by the Federal Statistical Office.

This growth trend, established in 2017, replaced a stage of stagnation, which started in July 2012. Since this point in time until November 2019 the trend growth of production is 0.2% p.a. So production of the German machinery industry has not altogether rid itself of the stagnation yet. This visualizes the dashed line from 2012 to 2019 in the diagram below.

Production machinery industry in Germany from 2008 to 2019.

The production index for November is 106.3 index points, 3 index points above the one-year average of 103.3 index points for the last 12 months.

Also the growth trend of sales, which had already begun in 2014, weakened in November 2019.

Growth trend of sales weakened to 2.2% per year

Since November 2014, sales in the German mechanical engineering industry have been showing a trend towards slight growth, which has continued in 2018 and also up to May 2019.

This growth trend, measured by the moving annual average of monthly sales as published by the Federal Statistical Office, shows a growth rate of 2.2% per year from November 2014 to November 2019.

However, until May 2019 the growth trend stood still at 3.0% p.a.

Sales of German machinery industry from 2008 to 2019.

Even in 2018, there were almost the same average growth rates of production and sales, which signaled an end to the prevailing trend to date of expressing the increasing high quality of machines from Germany, their increasing capacity and functionality in correspondingly rising prices.

In 2019, the average growth rates of production (0.4% p.a. since 2012) and sales (2.5% p.a. since 2014) diverge significantly. Thus, the tendency to pass on the increasing high quality even in rising prices is effective again.

Sales trend in euro of machinery industry drops to second-lowest annual low after peak in May

The sales trend of the machinery industry is determined as yearly moving average of the monthly sales numbers in euro. The current growth trend of sales in euro startet in February 2014 at a value of €17.7bn.

In May 2019 it reached a new top with €20.9bn, the highest value since the outbreak of the global economic crisis. The sales trend's growth rate stands at 2.7% per year from initial 2014 up to September 2019.

In September, the sales trend falls to €20.6bn, the second-lowest value to date in 2019. The growth rate of the sales trend is reduced to 2.7% per year from the beginning of 2014 to September.

The slight growth trend of sales is combined with distinct fluctuations around a slow increasing growth line in the course of several years. This phenomenon is visualized by an extra report for the time since 2000. Fluctuations of sales becoming ever larger.

Sales of machinery industry in euro in Germany from 2008 to 2019.

Growth expectation of German machine-builders to 2020

Growth expectation of German machine-builders in regard to their machine production to 2020 hightlights a separate report to results of a market survey from Quest TechnoMarketing.

The export markets in the long-term analysis

The export markets of the German machinery industry, the concentration of the export markets as well as the declining absorbing power of most of the export markets for German machine exports highlights several reports with long-term analyses.

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