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Production and sales of German machinery industry in September 2018

Growth trend of production and sales of German machinery industry at 2.9% resp. 3.1% per year

Symbol picture machinery industry.

This report combines multi-year trends with monthly status of production and sales in the German mechanical engineering. However, associations and official statistics separate both in favor of a mechanical comparison to previous month or year. Thus long-term effective trends are losing sight of. A separate trend report publishes the trends in production and sales from 2008 to 2017. As sales in euro are published delayed in time by the Federal Statistical Office publishes, so our analysis of these numbers.

Update November 8th, 2018 – The production of the German machinery industry has been showing a growth trend since March 2017 that counts for a growth of 3.1% per year to September 2018.

The growth trend is defined by Quest Trend Magazine as moving yearly average of the production indexes published by the Federal Statistical Office.

This growth trend, established in 2017, replaced a stage of stagnation, which started in July 2012. Since this point in time until September 2018 the trend growth of production is 0.8% p.a. So production of the German machinery industry has not altogether rid itself of the stagnation yet. This visualizes the upper and lower lines from 2012 to 2018 in the diagram below.

Production machinery industry in Germany from 2008 to 2018.

The production index for September is 106.6 index points, just 0.5 index points above the one-year average for the last 12 months. With this very small deviation, production in September is in the midst of the Bollinger Bands, which comprise 95% of the deviations from the one-year average. Only if the production values touched or exceeded the upper band there would be an economic boom or a crisis regarding the lower band.

The Bollinger Bands are explained in the left column.

Sales also continued their growth trend, which had already begun in 2014, in September 2018.

Sales up 3.1% per year since the end of 2014

Since November 2014, sales in the German mechanical engineering industry have been showing a trend towards slight growth, which has also continued into 2018.

This growth trend, measured by the moving annual average of monthly sales as published by the Federal Statistical Office, shows a growth rate of 3.1% per year from November 2014 to September 2018.

The classification of the sales indices into the Bollinger Bands shows a normal trend. The bands are slowly expanding, thus signaling a greater fluctuation range for both sales and production. A separate report examines this in more detail and quantifies the largest range of fluctuation in production and sales in the mechanical engineering sector.

Sales of German machinery industry from 2008 to 2018.

Currently the almost same average growth rates in production and sales are signaling an end to the prevailing tendency to express increased high quality of machines from Germany, their increased performance and functionality in correspondingly rising prices.

Sales trend of machinery industry in euro peaking again in August

The sales trend of the machinery industry is determined as yearly moving average of the monthly sales numbers in euro. The current growth trend of sales in euro startet in February 2014 at a value of €17.7bn.

In August 2018 it reached with €20.6bn its highest value since the outbreak of the global economic crisis. The sales trend's growth rate stands at 3.4% per year from initial 2014 up to mid 2018.

The slight growth trend of sales is combined with distinct fluctuations around a slow increasing growth line in the course of several years. This phenomenon is visualized by an extra report for the time since 2000. Fluctuations of sales becoming ever larger.

Sales of machinery industry in euro in Germany from 2008 to 2018.

Growth expectation of German machine-builders to 2020

Growth expectation of German machine-builders in regard to their machine production to 2020 hightlights a separate report to results of a market survey from Quest TechnoMarketing.

The export markets in the long-term analysis

The export markets of the German machinery industry, the concentration of the export markets as well as the declining absorbing power of most of the export markets for German machine exports highlights several reports with long-term analyses.

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