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Trends in production and sales of German machinery industry 2008 - 2018

Trend of Germany's machinery industry production reaches in 2018 pre-crisis level for the first time since 2008, stagnation likely to come in 2019

The analysis of production and sales of the German machinery industry during the ten years from 2008, the year of the breakout of the last world economic crisis, up to 2018 identifies three trends.

Update February 14th, 2019; first published August 27th, 2012 – Production of the German machinery industry reached on a yearly average in 2018 its pre-crisis level for the first time – ten years after the breakout of the global economic crisis in 2008!

Yearly trend of production on pre-crisis level for the first time

The yearly production average peaked 2008 with 106.4 index points; in October 2018 it stood at 107.1 index points as the diagram shows. The annual trend is determined as the average of the monthly production indices of the last twelve months, marked in the graph as a dashed line.  

The red oscillating line of the monthly production indices, on the other hand, exceeded the pre-crisis level three times in the last ten years, each time at the end of the year, but then fell back again and again.

Production machinery industry in Germany from 2008 to 2018.

By mid-2012, production had climbed out of the crisis low of 2010. In the following six and a half years until the end of 2018 it grew slightly at a rate of 0.8% per year.

Sales growth trend since 2012 at 2.3% per year

The sales trend left the crisis low behind in 2012 running afterwards into stagnation with an annual growth rate of 0.4% for two years until the end of 2013. However, unlike production, sales in 2014 overcame this stagnation phase and grew by 2.9% per year until the end of 2018.

Sales of machinery industry in Germany from 2008 to 2018.

Only slight growth in production with relatively stronger growth in sales - machines from Germany have therefore been becoming more and more valuable since 2014.

Sideways movement is the probable prospect for 2019

The report on Germany's industrial production for 2019 notes a flattening production trend and interprets this as the beginning of stagnation.

  • β€œIt is likely that the growth trend in 2019 will turn into stagnation, which could turn into a crisis. The reason for this follows initially from the global economy, which is characterized by a mixture of growth, stagnation and decline. This mix replaced a general economic upturn that used to follow a crisis. This situation is fragile and the factors for maintaining it are becoming weaker and weaker. These include the galloping national debt, mounting ever higher risks to continue. This includes industrial production in China, whose growth rates are slowing. This includes the aggressive US policy under Trump and the formation of a new, bipolar power structure in the world with the two major poles, the USA and China. All three factors are narrowing the global economy."  

This development can also be expected for the German machinery industry.

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