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Market survey of the German machinery industry

Machine-builders expecting yearly 5.5% growth to 2020

This average size comprises quite different growth expectations. They reach from a decline in production over stagnation up to growth expectations of more than yearly 40%.

Machine tool

Update June 8th, 2018 - This result showed a survey in the German machinery industry carried out by Quest TechnoMarketing in 2017 about the use of servo-drives at the machines until 2020.

 

An annual growth of 5.5% to 2020 means an increase of production of machines altogether by 18% from 2017 to 2020.

 

Which different growth expectations represent the machine-builders?

Growth expectations of German machine-builders to 2020.

Nearly half of the machine-builders supposes unchanged machine production to 2020

44% and thus nearly half of the interviewed machine-builders expect the annual production of machines will remain unchanged to 2020. This reluctant estimate crosses the sectors of the machinery industry.

  • „Machines becoming rather larger and more complex even if their number of items should decrese.“ (Building/glas/ceramic machines, 0% growth to 2020)

  • „I'd like to producte more plants, however, I suppose no change in the number of items.“ (Print and paperhandling machines, 0% growth to 2020)

  • „We do not have a growth market being forced to share the market with our competitors.“ (Print and paperhandling machines, 0% growth to 2020)

  • „This year is an extremely good one which I regard as a big exception. I suppose that it will go again back and the number of issues will be the same in 2020.“ (Textile machines, 0% growth to 2020)

  • "We can't produce more with our size." (Robotics and Automation, 0% growth to 2020)

  • "Plants becoming ever larger. Without additional manpower we've already reached our capacity limit." (Wood processing machines, 0% growth to 2020)


Individual statements show machine-builders without production growth already producing at their capacity limits.

More than half of machine-builders picks up growth tendencies

55% of the machine-builders connect their expectations with the temporary growth tendencies that are showing up in the ups and downs of machine production. These machine-builders possibly see new sales prospects on special export markets for their own strength profile. Or they hope to benefit in the future from weaknesses of their competitors.

  • "A strongly fluctuating market, currently we are on a high level." (Textile machines, +10% growth to 2020)
"We want to grow by 20% to 2020."
Wood processing machines
  • "Business is booming." (Conveyor, +25% to 2020)

  • "Currently we are in a boom." (Machine tools, over 40% to 2020)

  • "Regarding the sorting machines we'd like to get a plus of 10% and regarding the palletizers perhaps 20% to 30%." (Packaging machines)

  • "We expect a growth of 20%, also in regard to the linear systems for the product handling." (Packaging machines)

  • "We have grown pretty well, business is booming." (Rubber and plastics machines, +50% growth to 2020)

  • "Also the number of machines will grow. The exclicit goal is we want to grow." (Machine tools, +66% to 2020)

  • "This growth matches our experiences from the past." (Robotics and Automation, +60% growth to 2020)

  • "Our planning is always quite sportive, 10% growth per year might be a realistic planning number." (Print and paperhandling machines, +40% to 2020)

  • "We are expecting a moderate growth." (Wood processing machines, +10% growth to 2020)

  • "We want to grow by 10% per year." (Food processing machines, +25% to 2020)

  • "I expect a clear increase by 35% to 40%, unless business cycle will break down." (Building/glas/ceramic machines)


These growth expectations show up in all analyzed sectors.


Six out of ten sectors of the German machinery industry expect a growth above the average of 18% to 2020. One sector matches exactly the average, further three sectors lie significantly below average.

Growth expectations reflect experiences with the course of production in the machinery industry

The growth expectation of the machine-builders to 2020, which had been recorded in 2017, reflect the eperiences with the course of production of the machinery industry.


The long-term trend in production of the machinery industry points to a yearly growth by 0.7% from 2012 to 2017. In 2017 production grew by 3.7% compared to previous year, i.e. by the fivefold of the long-term trend. So this fact boosted the growth expectations of the interviewed companies for the future to 2020.

Production of German machinery industry from 2008 to 2017.

With these results the new Quest study „The future of the use of servo drives to 2020 in the German machinery industry“ highlights the economic background for the changes in the use of servos and the total electronic drive technology. For this purpose initial 2017 21% of the machine-builders in 10 sectors with 100 and more employees were interviewed.

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