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Automobile production in Germany 2008 - 2018 September

Growth trends of production and sales of Germany's auto industry at 1.8% resp. 3.3% p.a.

This report deals mainly with monthly changes of production and sales of the automobile industry in Germany based on official production statistics. A separate trend report publishes the trends in production and sales since the beginning of the world economy crisis in 2008 to 2017.

Update November 14th, 2018 - Automobile production in Germany has been establishing a slight growth trend as it can be seen from the course of the dashed line in the diagram. This line represents a moving yearly average of the monthly production numbers. The trend indicates a growth of the automobile production by 1.8% per year from January 2014 to September 2018.


So the growth trend of the automobile production in Germany is below the growth of the world automobile production at 2.8% per year from 2007 to 2017.

Automobile production in Germany from 2008 up to 2018.

The production index for September 2018 is at 101.6 index points below the average of the last twelve months. The Bollinger Band, explained in the left column, is a gauge of the fluctuation range of sizes. The bands cover 95% of the deviations of the production indices from the average of the last 12 months. As long as the deviations remain within the bands, the situation is normal, deviations above or below the bands signal a boom or a crisis.


The production index for September is still within the bands, thus signaling a normal deviation.

Increasing fluctuation range of production with only slight growth

Automobile production also confirms one of the structural changes that have taken place worldwide in the course of industrial production following the global economic crisis.


One of these structural changes is that fluctuations have increased with production stagnating or increasing only slightly. Without this structural change, fluctuations would be small with stagnation or slight growth. However, they are increasing, as the graph shows.


The slight growth in automobile production of 1.8% per year since the beginning of 2014 is associated with a fluctuation range of 47.7 index points. This is only 5% below the fluctuation margin during the last global economic crisis and almost a quarter above the phase after the crisis bottomed out.

Sales growing by 3.3% per year since 2014

Also sales have been establishing a growth trend since 2014 (dashed line in the diagram). This growth trend stands at 3.3% per year from February 2014 to September 2018, i.e. one and a half percentage points higher than that of car production.

Sales of German automobile industry from 2008 to 2018.

The sales growth trend stagnated from the beginning of 2016 to mid-2017. A renewed slight sales growth led the growth trend to a ten-year high in July 2018, measured as the moving annual average of 105.1 index points.


The current sales index of 96.3 index points is close to the lower Bollinger band, as with production, and thus (still) indicates a normal situation.

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